The advice is: do not bet. Suppose you download a gambling app that bets on games where the outcome is similar to a coin flip. You start receiving emails from someone associated with the app (so they bypass your spam filters). Each day for 20 days you receive an email predicting the outcome of the game. Each of the 20 predictions is correct. What do you do? Nothing. What you are unaware of (but should suspect) is that on the first email, the sender has sent out 8 million emails making a prediction (it is a popular gambling app). 4 million of those predicted the home team wins and the other 4 million predicted the visiting team wins. The next day the emails only goes out to those that received the correct prediction. Rinse. Repeat. And you happen to be an (un)lucky recipient of the 21st email distribution. The world you live in is no weirder than the world a Powerball Lottery winner lives in.
The advice is: do not bet. Suppose you download a gambling app that bets on games where the outcome is similar to a coin flip. You start receiving emails from someone associated with the app (so they bypass your spam filters). Each day for 20 days you receive an email predicting the outcome of the game. Each of the 20 predictions is correct. What do you do? Nothing. What you are unaware of (but should suspect) is that on the first email, the sender has sent out 8 million emails making a prediction (it is a popular gambling app). 4 million of those predicted the home team wins and the other 4 million predicted the visiting team wins. The next day the emails only goes out to those that received the correct prediction. Rinse. Repeat. And you happen to be an (un)lucky recipient of the 21st email distribution. The world you live in is no weirder than the world a Powerball Lottery winner lives in.
That’s a nice example. I heard about it long ago with investments instead of games. It is really something important to keep in mind!