I made the same comment on the original post. I really think this is a blindspot for US-based AI analysis.
China has smart engineers, as much as DM, OpenAI etc. Even the talent in a lot of these labs is from China originally. With a) immigration going the way it is, b) the ability to coordinate massive resources as a state, subsidies, c) potentially invading Taiwan, d) how close DeepSeek / Qwen models seem to be and the rate of catchup, e) how uncertain we are about hardware overhand (again, see deepseek training costs) etc, I think we should put at least a 50% chance of China being ahead in the next year.
I made the same comment on the original post. I really think this is a blindspot for US-based AI analysis.
China has smart engineers, as much as DM, OpenAI etc. Even the talent in a lot of these labs is from China originally. With a) immigration going the way it is, b) the ability to coordinate massive resources as a state, subsidies, c) potentially invading Taiwan, d) how close DeepSeek / Qwen models seem to be and the rate of catchup, e) how uncertain we are about hardware overhand (again, see deepseek training costs) etc, I think we should put at least a 50% chance of China being ahead in the next year.