I would guess that he thinks that the probability of this hypothetical—worlds in which brain scanning isn’t possible—is pretty low (based on having discussed it briefly with him). I’m sure everyone around here thinks it is possible as well, it’s just a question of how likely it is. It may be worth fleshing out the perspective even if it is relatively improbable.
In particular, the probability that you can’t get a functional human out of a brain scan seems extremely low (indeed, basically 0 if you interpret “brain scan” liberally), and this is the part that’s relevant to most futurism.
Whether there can be important aspects of your identity or continuity of experience that are locked up in uncopyable quantum state is more up for grabs, and I would be much more hesitant to bet against that at 100:1 odds. Again, I would guess that Scott takes a similar view.
Hi Paul. I completely agree that I see no reason why you couldn’t “get a functional human out of a brain scan”—though even there, I probably wouldn’t convert my failure to see such a reason into a bet at more than 100:1 odds that there’s no such reason. (Building a scalable quantum computer feels one or two orders of magnitude easier to me, and I “merely” staked $100,000 on that being possible—not my life or everything I own! :-) )
Now, regarding “whether there can be important aspects of your identity or continuity of experience that are locked up in uncopyable quantum state”: well, I regard myself as sufficiently confused about what we even mean by that idea, and how we could decide its truth or falsehood in a publicly-verifiable way, that I’d be hesitant to accept almost ANY bet about it, regardless of the odds! If you like, I’m in a state of Knightian uncertainty, to whatever extent I even understand the question. So, I wrote the essay mostly just as a way of trying to sort out my thoughts.
I would guess that he thinks that the probability of this hypothetical—worlds in which brain scanning isn’t possible—is pretty low (based on having discussed it briefly with him). I’m sure everyone around here thinks it is possible as well, it’s just a question of how likely it is. It may be worth fleshing out the perspective even if it is relatively improbable.
In particular, the probability that you can’t get a functional human out of a brain scan seems extremely low (indeed, basically 0 if you interpret “brain scan” liberally), and this is the part that’s relevant to most futurism.
Whether there can be important aspects of your identity or continuity of experience that are locked up in uncopyable quantum state is more up for grabs, and I would be much more hesitant to bet against that at 100:1 odds. Again, I would guess that Scott takes a similar view.
Hi Paul. I completely agree that I see no reason why you couldn’t “get a functional human out of a brain scan”—though even there, I probably wouldn’t convert my failure to see such a reason into a bet at more than 100:1 odds that there’s no such reason. (Building a scalable quantum computer feels one or two orders of magnitude easier to me, and I “merely” staked $100,000 on that being possible—not my life or everything I own! :-) )
Now, regarding “whether there can be important aspects of your identity or continuity of experience that are locked up in uncopyable quantum state”: well, I regard myself as sufficiently confused about what we even mean by that idea, and how we could decide its truth or falsehood in a publicly-verifiable way, that I’d be hesitant to accept almost ANY bet about it, regardless of the odds! If you like, I’m in a state of Knightian uncertainty, to whatever extent I even understand the question. So, I wrote the essay mostly just as a way of trying to sort out my thoughts.