Do we get some kind of reasonable guarantee that there won’t in the future be an even better matching offer (say a tripling of our impact), or is the idea here that the value of an SIAI donation is heavily time discounted?
There doesn’t seem to be anything SIAI would gain from running such a program. If big donors are willing to give $N to match donations, if donations are matched dollar-for-dollar then SIAI can reasonably hope to raise $2N in the fundraiser; if donations are matched two-dollars-for-every-dollar, SIAI will only get $(3/2)N. Unless, of course, the big donors would donate more if SIAI sets up the second type of matching program, but why would they?
The only scenario I can see where this would make sense is if SIAI expects small donors to donate less than $(1/2)N in a dollar-for-dollar scheme, so that its total gain from the fundraiser would be below $(3/2)N, but expects to get the full $(3/2)N in a two-dollars-for-every-dollar scheme. But not only does this seem like a very unlikely story, even if it did happen it seems that you should want to donate in the current fundraiser if you’re willing to do so at all, since this means that more matching funds would be available in the later two-dollars-for-every-dollar fundraiser for getting the other people to donate who we are postulating aren’t willing to donate at dollar-for-dollar.
The only scenario I can see where this would make sense is if SIAI expects small donors to donate less than $(1/2)N in a dollar-for-dollar scheme, so that its total gain from the fundraiser would be below $(3/2)N, but expects to get the full $(3/2)N in a two-dollars-for-every-dollar scheme. But not only does this seem like a very unlikely story [...]
One year later, the roaring success of MIRI’s Winter 2013 Matching Challenge, which is offering 3:1 matching for new large donors (people donating >= $5K who have donated less that $5K in total in the past) -- almost $232K out of the $250K maximum donated by the time of writing, with more than three weeks time left, where the Winter 2012 Fundraiser the parent is commenting on only reached its goal of $115K after a deadline extension, and the Summer 2013 Matching Challenge only reached its $200K goal around the time of the deadline—means that I pretty much need to eat my hat on the “very unlikely story” comment above. (There’s clearly an upward growth curve as well, but it does seem clear that lots of people wanted to take advantage of the 3:1.)
So far I still stand by the rest of the comment, though:
[...] even if it did happen it seems that you should want to donate in the current fundraiser if you’re willing to do so [at 1:1 matching], since this means that more matching funds would be available in the later two-dollars-for-every-dollar fundraiser for getting the other people to donate who we are postulating aren’t willing to donate at dollar-for-dollar.
To stay honest though, if someone is reading this thread and planning to do this, they should contact SI now with the amount they’re willing to match during a future drive… otherwise they’re highly liable to fall prey to donor akrasia.
I seem to recall reading a study that concluded that the multiplier on the match (above 0.5x) doesn’t change the increase in donations much. Cursory searching didn’t refind it though.
Do we get some kind of reasonable guarantee that there won’t in the future be an even better matching offer (say a tripling of our impact), or is the idea here that the value of an SIAI donation is heavily time discounted?
We’ve never done such a drive in the past and have no current plans for one. We do have a pretty heavy discount rate. Sorry i can’t say more.
oooooohhhh, super secret time pressure.
Maybe I should donate more...
There doesn’t seem to be anything SIAI would gain from running such a program. If big donors are willing to give $N to match donations, if donations are matched dollar-for-dollar then SIAI can reasonably hope to raise $2N in the fundraiser; if donations are matched two-dollars-for-every-dollar, SIAI will only get $(3/2)N. Unless, of course, the big donors would donate more if SIAI sets up the second type of matching program, but why would they?
The only scenario I can see where this would make sense is if SIAI expects small donors to donate less than $(1/2)N in a dollar-for-dollar scheme, so that its total gain from the fundraiser would be below $(3/2)N, but expects to get the full $(3/2)N in a two-dollars-for-every-dollar scheme. But not only does this seem like a very unlikely story, even if it did happen it seems that you should want to donate in the current fundraiser if you’re willing to do so at all, since this means that more matching funds would be available in the later two-dollars-for-every-dollar fundraiser for getting the other people to donate who we are postulating aren’t willing to donate at dollar-for-dollar.
One year later, the roaring success of MIRI’s Winter 2013 Matching Challenge, which is offering 3:1 matching for new large donors (people donating >= $5K who have donated less that $5K in total in the past) -- almost $232K out of the $250K maximum donated by the time of writing, with more than three weeks time left, where the Winter 2012 Fundraiser the parent is commenting on only reached its goal of $115K after a deadline extension, and the Summer 2013 Matching Challenge only reached its $200K goal around the time of the deadline—means that I pretty much need to eat my hat on the “very unlikely story” comment above. (There’s clearly an upward growth curve as well, but it does seem clear that lots of people wanted to take advantage of the 3:1.)
So far I still stand by the rest of the comment, though:
Given that historically SI has completed all matching drives to 100%, I wouldn’t even recommend waiting for a 2x match to donate.
Probably the best of all is to be a matching drive sponsor.
I can’t argue with that!
Yep!
To stay honest though, if someone is reading this thread and planning to do this, they should contact SI now with the amount they’re willing to match during a future drive… otherwise they’re highly liable to fall prey to donor akrasia.
I seem to recall reading a study that concluded that the multiplier on the match (above 0.5x) doesn’t change the increase in donations much. Cursory searching didn’t refind it though.