The last time you posted an essay multiple people including me suggested that you get people with better English skills to proofread your essays. (Edit: The spelling in this piece is better than you earlier piece but the grammar is not much better.) Don’t be surprised if people aren’t going to slog through your ideas if you aren’t going to take that step.
Despite this, I’ve made some effort to read what you’ve wrote. It seems that you are essentially trying to compare discussion about the possibility of strong AI to the possibility of alien visitors to Earth. Is this correct?
I don’t follow some of what you have wrote. For example you say:
In terms of evidence the hypothesis about UFOs has a sharp contrast to the hypothesis of AI. There are thousands of empirical evidences about UFO sightings. However Bayesian interference (increase the credibility) of each of the evidence is very small. That is, most of these evidences have an equal probability of being true or false and do not carry any information. Note that if we have 20 evidences with a probability of truth greater than 50%, say 60%, then Bays formula give a very substantial total evidence of 3000 to 1 - that is, would increase the validity of a priori hypothesis of 3000 times.
This is not how that theorem works. You can’t assume that each observation has a 50% chance of being an actual alien entity. I’m not sure if this is what you are saying. If it is then I’m very confused about how you are trying to use Bayes’s theorem.
Discussions about AI are always tend to come to discussion about rationality, but most UFO band is a bastion of irrationality. In fact, both can be described in terms of Bayesian logic. The belief that some topics are more rational than others is irrational.
Considering that the hard-core Bayesians here think that Bayesianism is the core of epistemology, the claim that something can be approached with Bayesian estimates is not a novel claim. Also, no one is claiming that topics are inherently more rational than others. It isn’t clear to me what that would mean. However, that doesn’t mean that some probability estimates aren’t more reasonable or rational than others. That’s not the same claim.
In terms of evidence the hypothesis about UFOs has a sharp contrast to the hypothesis of AI. There are thousands of empirical evidences about UFO sightings. However Bayesian interference (increase the credibility) of each of the evidence is very small. That is, most of these evidences have an equal probability of being true or false and do not carry any information. Note that if we have 20 evidences with a probability of truth greater than 50%, say 60%, then Bays formula give a very substantial total evidence of 3000 to 1 - that is, would increase the validity of a priori hypothesis of 3000 times.
This is not how that theorem works. You can’t assume that each observation has a 50% chance of being an actual alien entity. I’m not sure if this is what you are saying. If it is then I’m very confused about how you are trying to use Bayes’s theorem.
He’s talking about the likelihood ratio P(sighting|aliens)/(P(sighting|aliens) + P(sighting|no aliens)), which is a good measurement of the evidence gained from a sighting.
The last time you posted an essay multiple people including me suggested that you get people with better English skills to proofread your essays. (Edit: The spelling in this piece is better than you earlier piece but the grammar is not much better.) Don’t be surprised if people aren’t going to slog through your ideas if you aren’t going to take that step.
Despite this, I’ve made some effort to read what you’ve wrote. It seems that you are essentially trying to compare discussion about the possibility of strong AI to the possibility of alien visitors to Earth. Is this correct?
I don’t follow some of what you have wrote. For example you say:
This is not how that theorem works. You can’t assume that each observation has a 50% chance of being an actual alien entity. I’m not sure if this is what you are saying. If it is then I’m very confused about how you are trying to use Bayes’s theorem.
Considering that the hard-core Bayesians here think that Bayesianism is the core of epistemology, the claim that something can be approached with Bayesian estimates is not a novel claim. Also, no one is claiming that topics are inherently more rational than others. It isn’t clear to me what that would mean. However, that doesn’t mean that some probability estimates aren’t more reasonable or rational than others. That’s not the same claim.
He’s talking about the likelihood ratio P(sighting|aliens)/(P(sighting|aliens) + P(sighting|no aliens)), which is a good measurement of the evidence gained from a sighting.