Quirrell seems to have been counterfactually mugged by hearing the prophecy of the end of the world...which would mean his decision theory, and psychological commitment to it, are very advanced.
Assume Quirrell believes that the only possible explanation of the prophecy he heard is that the apocalypse is nigh. This makes sense: prophecies don’t occur for trivial events like a visitor to Hogwarts destroying books in the library named “Stars in Heaven” and “The World,” and the idea of “the end of the world” being a eucatastrophe hasn’t occurred to him. Assume Quirrell believes that prophecies are inevitable once spoken. Then why is Quirrell bothering to try to save the world?
Given that he hears the prophecy, Quirrell can either try T or not try ~T to avert it. Given that he tries, Quirrell is either capable C or incapable ~C of averting it. If T and C, by inevitability Quirrell will never hear the prophecy, which means that it is less likely the end of the world will occur (massive events always produce a prophecy that is heard by a wizard, so either Time finds some way to stop the end of the world or someone else hears it but fails to avert it). Say the end of the world causes −100 utility to Quirrell, and trying to stop it causes −1 utility. Then if C, a Quirrell that would try never hears the prophecy, so he never loses any utility, while a Quirrell that would not try hears the prophecy, goes out in a blaze of hedonism rather than fighting the inevitable, and loses 100 utility from the end of the world. Unfortunately, the actual world is the ~C world, where T brings −101 utility and ~T brings −100. So T looks like an irrational choice, but actually maximizes Quirrell’s utility across counterfactuals.
This isn’t the only explanation for Quirrell’s actions; he could just prefer to go out fighting, or be betting on the slim chance that prophecies actually can be averted, or just trying to delay the end of the world as long as possible, or acting on other, weirder motives. But it’s an interesting illustration of how alien a being that has truly internalized a really sophisticated decision theory might be.
Upvoted because it is an interesting parallel, but this is unlikely to be an explanation of Quirrell’s actions.
See Chapter 86:
More than the question of whom the prophecy spoke—who was meant to hear it? It is said that fates are spoken to those with the power to cause them or avert them.
Quirrell believes that he can cause or prevent the “end of the world” prophecy, and is gambling that helping Harry increases the chance of “prevent” rather than “cause”. A better chance was to dissuade Harry—that would increase the chance of “prevent” even more—but Quirrell’s just realized that he can’t do that.
If his goal was really to prevent Harry from destroying the world, he would just crush Harry like a bug and be done with it. He’s killed people for much less.
Best guess is that Harry is a horcrux. He can’t be killed, except with very powerful magic (Avada Kedavra or equivalent), and Quirrell can’t use magic against him. Further, his last attempt at killing Harry was a total disaster. Chapter 65:
“Casst Killing Cursse? ” Harry hissed in incredulity. “At me? Again? Ssecond time? Nobody will believe Dark Lord could posssibly be that sstupid—”
“You and I are only two people in country who would notice that,” hissed the snake. “Trusst me on thiss, boy.”
This does cast some light on how Voldemort got blown up in the first place. The fatal interaction of magic stems from Harry being a horcrux; but Harry’s only a horcrux because Voldemort made him one. Further, the horcruxing most likely happened because of the weird interaction of magic which caused Voldie to blow up (and his soul-explosion, or whatever, then anchored itself to the infant Harry). It looks like there was some sort of trick with a Time Turner involved in Godric’s Hollow to set this up. I suspect Dumbledore...
P.S. If Quirrell gets really desperate, he could of course try to persuade someone else to do the AK on Harry. Will be amazing if he can persuade Dumbledore to do it...
“Goblet of Fire” contains AK#2 as far as I remember. “Deathly Hallows” actually contains AK#3 and AK#4.…
You would think that after three failed attempts, Voldemort might have got the hint. HPMoR Voldemort would of course update after one failed attempt and not try again.
Allowing for alternatives to AK, I think there are only two possible explanations for why Voldie doesn’t just kill Harry at this point:
He values Harry alive so much that he is willing to risk ending the universe.
Of course, every time the AK fails in canon, it is for a different reason (unless you count “plot armor”), making the true correct conclusion more difficult to see.
I’m not sure that’s possible. If Harry is defeated, it must be in such a way that “only a remnant of him remains,” by prophesy. Crushing Harry now would not leave a remnant (even if “remnant” means “legacy,” I would argue); therefore, it is not worth trying.
Only if Harry has no other value to him that would make him worth preserving, in which case the entire story would be completely different. We know that Quirrell values Harry, instrumentally and possibly emotionally, and has great plans for him. He will not sacrifice all of that unless he has no other choice.
That’s my point. Quirrell has plans for Harry. Any worry about what Harry will do is better explained by worry that Quirrell’s plans will be thwarted by what Harry does, not by some supposed worry of Quirrell’s that Harry will destroy the world. And more likely than any worry is just the opportunity presented by Harry’s resolve to bring back Hermione by any means necessary.
Huh, that does make a lot more sense. I guess I’d been assuming that any reference to someone “averting” a prophecy was actually just someone forcing the better branch of an EitherOrProphecy (tvtropes). Like if Trelawney had said “HE WHO WOULD TEAR APART THE VERY STARS IN HEAVEN IF NONE STAND AGAINST IT.” The inference that prophecies don’t always come true fits Quirrell’s behavior much better.
Quirrell seems to have been counterfactually mugged by hearing the prophecy of the end of the world...which would mean his decision theory, and psychological commitment to it, are very advanced.
Assume Quirrell believes that the only possible explanation of the prophecy he heard is that the apocalypse is nigh. This makes sense: prophecies don’t occur for trivial events like a visitor to Hogwarts destroying books in the library named “Stars in Heaven” and “The World,” and the idea of “the end of the world” being a eucatastrophe hasn’t occurred to him. Assume Quirrell believes that prophecies are inevitable once spoken. Then why is Quirrell bothering to try to save the world?
Given that he hears the prophecy, Quirrell can either try T or not try ~T to avert it. Given that he tries, Quirrell is either capable C or incapable ~C of averting it. If T and C, by inevitability Quirrell will never hear the prophecy, which means that it is less likely the end of the world will occur (massive events always produce a prophecy that is heard by a wizard, so either Time finds some way to stop the end of the world or someone else hears it but fails to avert it). Say the end of the world causes −100 utility to Quirrell, and trying to stop it causes −1 utility. Then if C, a Quirrell that would try never hears the prophecy, so he never loses any utility, while a Quirrell that would not try hears the prophecy, goes out in a blaze of hedonism rather than fighting the inevitable, and loses 100 utility from the end of the world. Unfortunately, the actual world is the ~C world, where T brings −101 utility and ~T brings −100. So T looks like an irrational choice, but actually maximizes Quirrell’s utility across counterfactuals.
This isn’t the only explanation for Quirrell’s actions; he could just prefer to go out fighting, or be betting on the slim chance that prophecies actually can be averted, or just trying to delay the end of the world as long as possible, or acting on other, weirder motives. But it’s an interesting illustration of how alien a being that has truly internalized a really sophisticated decision theory might be.
Upvoted because it is an interesting parallel, but this is unlikely to be an explanation of Quirrell’s actions. See Chapter 86:
Quirrell believes that he can cause or prevent the “end of the world” prophecy, and is gambling that helping Harry increases the chance of “prevent” rather than “cause”. A better chance was to dissuade Harry—that would increase the chance of “prevent” even more—but Quirrell’s just realized that he can’t do that.
If his goal was really to prevent Harry from destroying the world, he would just crush Harry like a bug and be done with it. He’s killed people for much less.
Best guess is that Harry is a horcrux. He can’t be killed, except with very powerful magic (Avada Kedavra or equivalent), and Quirrell can’t use magic against him. Further, his last attempt at killing Harry was a total disaster. Chapter 65:
This does cast some light on how Voldemort got blown up in the first place. The fatal interaction of magic stems from Harry being a horcrux; but Harry’s only a horcrux because Voldemort made him one. Further, the horcruxing most likely happened because of the weird interaction of magic which caused Voldie to blow up (and his soul-explosion, or whatever, then anchored itself to the infant Harry). It looks like there was some sort of trick with a Time Turner involved in Godric’s Hollow to set this up. I suspect Dumbledore...
P.S. If Quirrell gets really desperate, he could of course try to persuade someone else to do the AK on Harry. Will be amazing if he can persuade Dumbledore to do it...
Your quote could be just making fun of canon though.
Specifically, the final book where Voldemort goes for not just AK #2 but also AK #3 as well.
“Goblet of Fire” contains AK#2 as far as I remember. “Deathly Hallows” actually contains AK#3 and AK#4.… You would think that after three failed attempts, Voldemort might have got the hint. HPMoR Voldemort would of course update after one failed attempt and not try again.
Allowing for alternatives to AK, I think there are only two possible explanations for why Voldie doesn’t just kill Harry at this point:
He values Harry alive so much that he is willing to risk ending the universe.
He can’t kill Harry.
Of course, every time the AK fails in canon, it is for a different reason (unless you count “plot armor”), making the true correct conclusion more difficult to see.
I’m not sure that’s possible. If Harry is defeated, it must be in such a way that “only a remnant of him remains,” by prophesy. Crushing Harry now would not leave a remnant (even if “remnant” means “legacy,” I would argue); therefore, it is not worth trying.
Only if Harry has no other value to him that would make him worth preserving, in which case the entire story would be completely different. We know that Quirrell values Harry, instrumentally and possibly emotionally, and has great plans for him. He will not sacrifice all of that unless he has no other choice.
That’s my point. Quirrell has plans for Harry. Any worry about what Harry will do is better explained by worry that Quirrell’s plans will be thwarted by what Harry does, not by some supposed worry of Quirrell’s that Harry will destroy the world. And more likely than any worry is just the opportunity presented by Harry’s resolve to bring back Hermione by any means necessary.
Huh, that does make a lot more sense. I guess I’d been assuming that any reference to someone “averting” a prophecy was actually just someone forcing the better branch of an EitherOrProphecy (tvtropes). Like if Trelawney had said “HE WHO WOULD TEAR APART THE VERY STARS IN HEAVEN IF NONE STAND AGAINST IT.” The inference that prophecies don’t always come true fits Quirrell’s behavior much better.
Upvoted for the word ‘eucatastrophe’.
Zorti Zandapheri of the Twitterverse suggests “fantastrophe”.