If Nesov thought that additional clarification was necessary, he could have said so. But actually he simply criticised the use of the word “surely”.
I consider pedantry to be a good thing. On the other hand, it is at least polite to be charitable in interpreting someone, particularly when the nitpick in question is basically irrelevant to main thrust of the argument.
“Surely” is just a word. Literally it means 100% or ~100% probability, but sometimes it just sounds good or it is used sloppily. If I had to give a number, I’d have said 95% probability that superintelligent AI won’t be developed before we learn about the human brain in detail.
I’m highly amenable to criticism of that estimate from people who know more about the subject, but since my politely phrased request for Nesov’s own estimate was downvoted I decided that this kind of uncharitableness has more to do with status than constructive debate. As such it is not rational.
I retracted the comment on the basis that it was a little petulant but since you asked, there is my explanation.
If Nesov thought that additional clarification was necessary, he could have said so. But actually he simply criticised the use of the word “surely”.
I consider pedantry to be a good thing. On the other hand, it is at least polite to be charitable in interpreting someone, particularly when the nitpick in question is basically irrelevant to main thrust of the argument.
“Surely” is just a word. Literally it means 100% or ~100% probability, but sometimes it just sounds good or it is used sloppily. If I had to give a number, I’d have said 95% probability that superintelligent AI won’t be developed before we learn about the human brain in detail.
I’m highly amenable to criticism of that estimate from people who know more about the subject, but since my politely phrased request for Nesov’s own estimate was downvoted I decided that this kind of uncharitableness has more to do with status than constructive debate. As such it is not rational.
I retracted the comment on the basis that it was a little petulant but since you asked, there is my explanation.