While writing this, I was primarily thinking of reading books. I should have thought more about meeting people in person, in which case I would have echoed the warnings you gave about Michael. I think he is a good example of someone who both has some brilliant ideas and can lead people astray, but I agree with you that people’s filters are less functional (and charisma is more powerful) in the real-life medium.
On the other hand, I agree that Steven Pinker misrepresents basic facts about AI. But he was also involved in my first coming across “The Nurture Assumption”, which was very important for my intellectual growth and which I think has held up well. I’ve seen multiple people correct his basic misunderstandings of AI, and I worry less about being stuck believing false things forever than about missing out on Nurture-Assumption-level important ideas (I think I now know enough other people in the same sphere that Pinker isn’t a necessary source of this, but I think earlier for me he was).
There have been some books, including “Inadequate Equilibria” and “Zero To One”, that have warned people against the Outside View/EMH. This is the kind of idea that takes the safety wheels off cognition—it will help bright people avoid hobbling themselves, but also give gullible people new opportunities to fail. And there is no way to direct it, because non-bright, gullible people can’t identify themselves as such. I think the idea of ruling geniuses in is similarly dangerous, in that there’s no way to direct it only to non-gullible people who can appreciate good insight and throw off falsehoods. You can only say the words of warning, knowing that people are unlikely to listen.
I still think on net it’s worth having out there. But the example you gave of Michael and of in-person communication in general makes me wish I had added more warnings.
Thanks for this response.
I mostly agree with everything you’ve said.
While writing this, I was primarily thinking of reading books. I should have thought more about meeting people in person, in which case I would have echoed the warnings you gave about Michael. I think he is a good example of someone who both has some brilliant ideas and can lead people astray, but I agree with you that people’s filters are less functional (and charisma is more powerful) in the real-life medium.
On the other hand, I agree that Steven Pinker misrepresents basic facts about AI. But he was also involved in my first coming across “The Nurture Assumption”, which was very important for my intellectual growth and which I think has held up well. I’ve seen multiple people correct his basic misunderstandings of AI, and I worry less about being stuck believing false things forever than about missing out on Nurture-Assumption-level important ideas (I think I now know enough other people in the same sphere that Pinker isn’t a necessary source of this, but I think earlier for me he was).
There have been some books, including “Inadequate Equilibria” and “Zero To One”, that have warned people against the Outside View/EMH. This is the kind of idea that takes the safety wheels off cognition—it will help bright people avoid hobbling themselves, but also give gullible people new opportunities to fail. And there is no way to direct it, because non-bright, gullible people can’t identify themselves as such. I think the idea of ruling geniuses in is similarly dangerous, in that there’s no way to direct it only to non-gullible people who can appreciate good insight and throw off falsehoods. You can only say the words of warning, knowing that people are unlikely to listen.
I still think on net it’s worth having out there. But the example you gave of Michael and of in-person communication in general makes me wish I had added more warnings.