Genetics will soon be more modifiable than environment, in humans.
Let’s first briefly see why this is true. Polygenic selection of embryos is already available commercially (from Genomic Prediction). It currently only has a weak effect, but In Vitro Gametogenesis (IVG) will dramatically strengthen the effect. IVG has already been demonstrated in mice, and there are several research labs and startups working on making it possible in humans. Additionally, genetic editing continues to improve and may become relevant as well.
The difficulty of modifying the environment is just due to having picked the low-hanging fruit there already. If they were easy and effective, they’d be used already. That doesn’t mean that there’s nothing useful here to do, just that it’s hard. Genetics, on the other hand, still has all the low-hanging fruit ripe to pluck.
Here’s why I think people aren’t ready to accept this: the idea that genetics is practically immutable is built deep into the worldviews of people who have an opinion on it at all. This leads to an argument dynamic where progressives (in the sense of favoring change) underplay the influence of genetics while conservatives (in the sense of opposing change) exaggerate it. What happens to these arguments when high heritability of a trait means that it’s easy to change?
I do not agree, or at least this needs to be more qualified. I definitely agree that genetics long term has more potential, though right now there’s one massive problem: Pretty much all of the breakthroughs impact the gametes only, and thus only alters your offspring.
There needs to be a lot more progress on the somatic gene editing before it’s at all used in practice.
Indeed, the benefit for already-born people is harder to forsee. That depends on more-distant biotech innovations. It could be that they come quickly (making embryo interventions less relevant) or slowly (making embryo interventions very important).
Genetics will soon be more modifiable than environment, in humans.
Let’s first briefly see why this is true. Polygenic selection of embryos is already available commercially (from Genomic Prediction). It currently only has a weak effect, but In Vitro Gametogenesis (IVG) will dramatically strengthen the effect. IVG has already been demonstrated in mice, and there are several research labs and startups working on making it possible in humans. Additionally, genetic editing continues to improve and may become relevant as well.
The difficulty of modifying the environment is just due to having picked the low-hanging fruit there already. If they were easy and effective, they’d be used already. That doesn’t mean that there’s nothing useful here to do, just that it’s hard. Genetics, on the other hand, still has all the low-hanging fruit ripe to pluck.
Here’s why I think people aren’t ready to accept this: the idea that genetics is practically immutable is built deep into the worldviews of people who have an opinion on it at all. This leads to an argument dynamic where progressives (in the sense of favoring change) underplay the influence of genetics while conservatives (in the sense of opposing change) exaggerate it. What happens to these arguments when high heritability of a trait means that it’s easy to change?
See also this related 2014 SSC post: https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/09/10/society-is-fixed-biology-is-mutable/.
I do not agree, or at least this needs to be more qualified. I definitely agree that genetics long term has more potential, though right now there’s one massive problem: Pretty much all of the breakthroughs impact the gametes only, and thus only alters your offspring.
There needs to be a lot more progress on the somatic gene editing before it’s at all used in practice.
Indeed, the benefit for already-born people is harder to forsee. That depends on more-distant biotech innovations. It could be that they come quickly (making embryo interventions less relevant) or slowly (making embryo interventions very important).