Re AI coding, some interesting thoughts on this are from Ajeya Cotra’s talks (short form, there are a lot of weaknesses, but the real-world programmer productivity is surprisingly high for coding tasks, but is very bad outside of coding tasks, which is why AI’s impact is limited so far):
And this is mostly where it’ll stay unless AGI labs actually crack long-horizon agency/innovations; i. e., basically until genuine AGI is actually there.
Prove me wrong, I guess.
My main takeaway is actually kind of different, in that there’s less of a core of generality on the default path than people originally thought, and while there is some entanglement on capabilities, there can also be weird spikes and deficits, and this makes the term AGI a lot less useful than people thought.
Re AI coding, some interesting thoughts on this are from Ajeya Cotra’s talks (short form, there are a lot of weaknesses, but the real-world programmer productivity is surprisingly high for coding tasks, but is very bad outside of coding tasks, which is why AI’s impact is limited so far):
https://x.com/ajeya_cotra/status/1894821432854749456
https://x.com/ajeya_cotra/status/1895161774376436147
Re this:
My main takeaway is actually kind of different, in that there’s less of a core of generality on the default path than people originally thought, and while there is some entanglement on capabilities, there can also be weird spikes and deficits, and this makes the term AGI a lot less useful than people thought.
The AI does not make the meetings pass 10x faster, and that is where the senior developers spend a lot of time.