What probability would you put on recurrent neuralese architectures overtaking transformers within the next three years? What are the most important arguments swaying this probability one way or the other? (If you want a specific operationalization for answering this, I like the one proposed by Fabien Roger here, though I’d probably be more stringent on the text bottlenecks criterion, maybe requiring a text bottleneck after at most 10k rather than 100k opaque serial operations.)
What probability would you put on recurrent neuralese architectures overtaking transformers within the next three years? What are the most important arguments swaying this probability one way or the other? (If you want a specific operationalization for answering this, I like the one proposed by Fabien Roger here, though I’d probably be more stringent on the text bottlenecks criterion, maybe requiring a text bottleneck after at most 10k rather than 100k opaque serial operations.)