I find myself puzzled by Eliezer’s tweet. I had always taken the point of the diagram to be the vastness of the space above Einstein compared with the distance between Einstein and the village idiot. I do not see how recent developments in AI affect that. AI has (in Eliezer’s view) barely reached the level of the village idiot. Nothing in the diagram bears on how long it will take to equal Einstein. That is anyway a matter of the future, and Eliezer has often remarked on how many predictions of long timelines to some achievement turned out to be achieved within months, or already had been when the prediction was made. I wonder what Eliezer’s predicted time to Einstein is, given no slowdown.
I find myself puzzled by Eliezer’s tweet. I had always taken the point of the diagram to be the vastness of the space above Einstein compared with the distance between Einstein and the village idiot. I do not see how recent developments in AI affect that. AI has (in Eliezer’s view) barely reached the level of the village idiot. Nothing in the diagram bears on how long it will take to equal Einstein. That is anyway a matter of the future, and Eliezer has often remarked on how many predictions of long timelines to some achievement turned out to be achieved within months, or already had been when the prediction was made. I wonder what Eliezer’s predicted time to Einstein is, given no slowdown.