This is very much my gut feeling, too. LLMs have a much greater knowledge base than humans do, and some of them can “think” faster. But humans are still better at many things, including raw problem solving skills. (Though LLM’s problem solving skills have improved a breathtaking amount in the last 12 months since o1-preview shipped. Seriously, folks. The goalpost-moving is giving me vertigo.)
This uneven capabilities profile means that LLMs are still well below the so-called “village idiot” in many important ways, and have already soared past Einstein in others. This averages out to “kinda competent on short time horizons if you don’t squint too hard.”
But even if the difference between “the village idiot” and “smarter than Einstein” involved another AI winter, two major theoretical breakthroughs, and another 10 years, I would still consider that damn close to a vertical curve.
This is very much my gut feeling, too. LLMs have a much greater knowledge base than humans do, and some of them can “think” faster. But humans are still better at many things, including raw problem solving skills. (Though LLM’s problem solving skills have improved a breathtaking amount in the last 12 months since o1-preview shipped. Seriously, folks. The goalpost-moving is giving me vertigo.)
This uneven capabilities profile means that LLMs are still well below the so-called “village idiot” in many important ways, and have already soared past Einstein in others. This averages out to “kinda competent on short time horizons if you don’t squint too hard.”
But even if the difference between “the village idiot” and “smarter than Einstein” involved another AI winter, two major theoretical breakthroughs, and another 10 years, I would still consider that damn close to a vertical curve.