I do not expect a country that allows 12-17 year olds to vote to have worse outcomes than a country that does not.
That’s a trick statement, because the biggest reason that a country that allows 12-17 year olds to vote won’t have worse outcomes is that the number of such people voting isn’t enough to have much of an influence on the outcome at all. I don;t expect a country that adds a few hundred votes chosen by throwing darts at ballots to have worse outcomes, either.
The proper question is whether you expect a country that allows them to vote to have worse outcomes to the extent that letting them vote affects the outcome at all.
There is no trick. For it to be a trick of the kind you suggest would require that the meaning people take from it is different from the meaning I intend to convey. I do not limit the claim to “statistically insignificant worse outcomes because the 25 million people added are somehow negligible”. I mean it like it sounds. I have not particular expectation that the marginal change to the system will be in the negative direction.
That’s a trick statement, because the biggest reason that a country that allows 12-17 year olds to vote won’t have worse outcomes is that the number of such people voting isn’t enough to have much of an influence on the outcome at all. I don;t expect a country that adds a few hundred votes chosen by throwing darts at ballots to have worse outcomes, either.
The proper question is whether you expect a country that allows them to vote to have worse outcomes to the extent that letting them vote affects the outcome at all.
In the US there are about 25m 12-17-year-olds.
In the last (2012) presidential election the popular vote gap between the two candidates was 5m people.
There is no trick. For it to be a trick of the kind you suggest would require that the meaning people take from it is different from the meaning I intend to convey. I do not limit the claim to “statistically insignificant worse outcomes because the 25 million people added are somehow negligible”. I mean it like it sounds. I have not particular expectation that the marginal change to the system will be in the negative direction.