Hmm. I have ready opinions on everything, whether I know what the hell I’m talking about or not. I think this may be a bad thing, therefore have taken to trying to say “I don’t know” when my reasons for my opinions (as best I can stacktrace them) don’t pass personal muster. Is this bad?
Yes! You’re communicating less information! Well, it could be a good thing, if you noticed an anti-correlation between your no-good-reason opinions and whatever the best-reasons opinion is. But I don’t think that would actually be the case.
I would advise something more like “I’m just talking out of my ass here, but it seems like”. For results of studies that I can’t remember details of I like “don’t quote me on this but”, for qualitative answers “no bloody idea, but” and for quantitative answers “I’m making this up, but”. That way you share both the opinion, and give them a reasonably good picture of how much support for your opinion you have.
If you were dealing with a Bayesian you could just say “I believe x, based on three signals of 5:1 in favour of x”. Obviously, this is gibberish to the average person—but a Bayesian would only update their posterior slightly on hearing your weakly-supported opinion, so using such phrases gets average people to only change their minds a little bit; thus being a little bit more like a Bayesian reasoner.
Well, it could be a good thing, if you noticed an anti-correlation between your no-good-reason opinions and whatever the best-reasons opinion is.
It doesn’t just depend on the accuracy of the opinions themselves, but rather on how the recipient weighs the information.
If you have a certainty of 55% on a binary (A) or (B) question, and you respond “it seems to me there’s a 55% chance of “Yes” ”, I wouldn’t be surprised if the non-perfect Bayesian recipient of the information would treat this as if you had mentioned a certainty of 75%.
In this situation, you’re better off just saying “I don’t know” (essentially 50%) which doesn’t bias the result towards the wrong direction.
Now if you believe the person you talk to will NOT put more weight on your information than they should, then sure, you should feel free to speak.
If you have a certainty of 55% on a binary (A) or (B) question, and you respond “it seems to me there’s a 55% chance of “Yes” ”, I wouldn’t be surprised if the non-perfect Bayesian recipient of the information would treat this as if you had mentioned a certainty of 75%.
Hence my useful phrases; in practice they diminish the other person’s measure of my certainty significantly.
As long as you realize that you have some knowledge, just saying the words is not necessarily bad.
Are you talking about saying “I don’t know” verbally or mentally (ie to yourself)? Verbally, it is often the most efficient way to communicate some information. Mentally, it is usually good to explicitly think of what your ignorance prior is. If you have to act on the (lack of) knowledge, at least think of what possibilities are or are not permitted by the evidence. Of course, it is often better to ask someone than to examine your ignorance prior in detail, depending on the situation.
Hmm. I have ready opinions on everything, whether I know what the hell I’m talking about or not. I think this may be a bad thing, therefore have taken to trying to say “I don’t know” when my reasons for my opinions (as best I can stacktrace them) don’t pass personal muster. Is this bad?
Yes! You’re communicating less information! Well, it could be a good thing, if you noticed an anti-correlation between your no-good-reason opinions and whatever the best-reasons opinion is. But I don’t think that would actually be the case.
I would advise something more like “I’m just talking out of my ass here, but it seems like”. For results of studies that I can’t remember details of I like “don’t quote me on this but”, for qualitative answers “no bloody idea, but” and for quantitative answers “I’m making this up, but”. That way you share both the opinion, and give them a reasonably good picture of how much support for your opinion you have.
If you were dealing with a Bayesian you could just say “I believe x, based on three signals of 5:1 in favour of x”. Obviously, this is gibberish to the average person—but a Bayesian would only update their posterior slightly on hearing your weakly-supported opinion, so using such phrases gets average people to only change their minds a little bit; thus being a little bit more like a Bayesian reasoner.
It doesn’t just depend on the accuracy of the opinions themselves, but rather on how the recipient weighs the information.
If you have a certainty of 55% on a binary (A) or (B) question, and you respond “it seems to me there’s a 55% chance of “Yes” ”, I wouldn’t be surprised if the non-perfect Bayesian recipient of the information would treat this as if you had mentioned a certainty of 75%.
In this situation, you’re better off just saying “I don’t know” (essentially 50%) which doesn’t bias the result towards the wrong direction.
Now if you believe the person you talk to will NOT put more weight on your information than they should, then sure, you should feel free to speak.
Hence my useful phrases; in practice they diminish the other person’s measure of my certainty significantly.
As long as you realize that you have some knowledge, just saying the words is not necessarily bad.
Are you talking about saying “I don’t know” verbally or mentally (ie to yourself)? Verbally, it is often the most efficient way to communicate some information. Mentally, it is usually good to explicitly think of what your ignorance prior is. If you have to act on the (lack of) knowledge, at least think of what possibilities are or are not permitted by the evidence. Of course, it is often better to ask someone than to examine your ignorance prior in detail, depending on the situation.