I’m a traffic engineer and this sort of thing is more or less my area of expertise. I feel weird posting “I have nothing to add, seems legit” but I feel like if I wrote a blog post like this as a layman I’d like to know I wasn’t completely off my rocker.
My only suggestion would be if the data allows you to also get “serious injuries”—those are a bit less variable than fatalities and will be able to give you a better picture of the trend, because there’s also going to be more of them.
I used to do fatal crash investigation, and fatalities can be very random. You hear about horrific car crashes at high speeds where everyone walks away without a scratch. What you don’t hear about is the sort of crash I attended once: a tiny, slow crash on a back road at a low speed, where two cars hit each other at a small suburban intersection. Barely any damage to the cars. No sign of the crash on the road or the vicinity (fatal crashes often have damaged vegetation, marks on the road, etc). But one of the passengers was an 84 year old woman and that crash was more than her body could take. If she hadn’t been in the car, there would probably have been zero fatalities in that crash. I saw another similar crash with a man in his 80s.
That was what surprised me the most about doing fatal crash investigation: I was expecting there to be men in their 20s and 30s who were drunk or high. I wasn’t expecting the number of suicides but it didn’t surprise me. But the number of “old people” who died, I hadn’t expected that even though it’s so obvious in retrospect.
But yeah, that sort of thing is why I think “serious injuries” or “hospitalisations” might be a better metric for you: there will be 10-100x more of them so the trend will be less noisy.
I’m a traffic engineer and this sort of thing is more or less my area of expertise. I feel weird posting “I have nothing to add, seems legit” but I feel like if I wrote a blog post like this as a layman I’d like to know I wasn’t completely off my rocker.
My only suggestion would be if the data allows you to also get “serious injuries”—those are a bit less variable than fatalities and will be able to give you a better picture of the trend, because there’s also going to be more of them.
I used to do fatal crash investigation, and fatalities can be very random. You hear about horrific car crashes at high speeds where everyone walks away without a scratch. What you don’t hear about is the sort of crash I attended once: a tiny, slow crash on a back road at a low speed, where two cars hit each other at a small suburban intersection. Barely any damage to the cars. No sign of the crash on the road or the vicinity (fatal crashes often have damaged vegetation, marks on the road, etc). But one of the passengers was an 84 year old woman and that crash was more than her body could take. If she hadn’t been in the car, there would probably have been zero fatalities in that crash. I saw another similar crash with a man in his 80s.
That was what surprised me the most about doing fatal crash investigation: I was expecting there to be men in their 20s and 30s who were drunk or high. I wasn’t expecting the number of suicides but it didn’t surprise me. But the number of “old people” who died, I hadn’t expected that even though it’s so obvious in retrospect.
But yeah, that sort of thing is why I think “serious injuries” or “hospitalisations” might be a better metric for you: there will be 10-100x more of them so the trend will be less noisy.