That entirely depends on your cosmological model, and in all cosmological models I know, the sun is a definite and fixed object, so usually P(sunrise)=1−P(apocalypse)
The premise seems to be that there is no model, you’re seeing the sun for the first time. Presumably there are also no starts, planets, moons in the sky, and no telescopes or other tools that would help you build a decent cosmological model.
In that situation you may still realize that there is one thing rotating around another and deduce that P(sunrise) = 1-P(apocalypse). Unless you happen to live in the Arctic, or your planet is rotating in some weird ways, or it’s moving in a weird orbit, or etc.
My point is that estimating P(sunrise) is not trivial, the number can’t just be pulled out of the air. I don’t see anything better than Laplace rule, at least initially. You said it doesn’t work, so I’m asking you, what does work?
That entirely depends on your cosmological model, and in all cosmological models I know, the sun is a definite and fixed object, so usually P(sunrise)=1−P(apocalypse)
The premise seems to be that there is no model, you’re seeing the sun for the first time. Presumably there are also no starts, planets, moons in the sky, and no telescopes or other tools that would help you build a decent cosmological model.
In that situation you may still realize that there is one thing rotating around another and deduce that P(sunrise) = 1-P(apocalypse). Unless you happen to live in the Arctic, or your planet is rotating in some weird ways, or it’s moving in a weird orbit, or etc.
My point is that estimating P(sunrise) is not trivial, the number can’t just be pulled out of the air. I don’t see anything better than Laplace rule, at least initially. You said it doesn’t work, so I’m asking you, what does work?
A much, much easier think that still works is P(sunrise) = 1, which I expect is what ancient astronomers felt about.