This is a linkpost for my post on the Coefficient Giving Substack today, which bundles a few points about AI timelines that I think are important to keep in mind when making decisions. TLDR, when making decisions with respect to AI timelines, usually you should:
Use distributions, not point estimates/deadlines;
Use “decision importance” rather than capability thresholds;
Remember to account for leverage.
I coin “DIAL distribution,” where DIAL stands for “decision importance adjusted for leverage,” as a handy acronym for this bundle of concepts.
The post itself is here. Appreciate your feedback!
Proposal for “Timelines to what”: DIAL distribution
This is a linkpost for my post on the Coefficient Giving Substack today, which bundles a few points about AI timelines that I think are important to keep in mind when making decisions. TLDR, when making decisions with respect to AI timelines, usually you should:
Use distributions, not point estimates/deadlines;
Use “decision importance” rather than capability thresholds;
Remember to account for leverage.
I coin “DIAL distribution,” where DIAL stands for “decision importance adjusted for leverage,” as a handy acronym for this bundle of concepts.
The post itself is here. Appreciate your feedback!