Also note that if 10 of the world’s top AI experts spent two weeks with MIRI and FHI trying to understand our arguments, and their conclusion was that AI wasn’t much of a risk, and their primary reasons were (1) a denial of causal functionalism and (2) the Chinese room argument, and we had tried hard to elicit other objections, then MIRI and FHI should update in favor of more confidence that we’re on the right track.
Based on what we already know this would require a very unrepresentative sample, and cause wider revisions. And if they published such obviously unconvincing reasons it would lead to similar updates in many casual observers.
And so what we are going to do is, there is really almost no reason to make human-like intelligence because we can do it so easily in 9 months. Untrained workforce.
Yes, this argument is remarkably unconvincing. Human labor is still costly, limited in supply (it’s not 9 months, it’s 20+ years, with feeding, energy costs, unreliable quality and many other restrictions), and so forth.
Based on what we already know this would require a very unrepresentative sample.
There’s too much focus on confirmation—e.g. if it is false, there must be some update in the opposite direction, but in practice one would just say that “those top 10 AI experts took us seriously and engaged out arguments, which boosts our confidence that we are on the right track”.
Based on what we already know this would require a very unrepresentative sample, and cause wider revisions. And if they published such obviously unconvincing reasons it would lead to similar updates in many casual observers.
Yes, this argument is remarkably unconvincing. Human labor is still costly, limited in supply (it’s not 9 months, it’s 20+ years, with feeding, energy costs, unreliable quality and many other restrictions), and so forth.
There’s too much focus on confirmation—e.g. if it is false, there must be some update in the opposite direction, but in practice one would just say that “those top 10 AI experts took us seriously and engaged out arguments, which boosts our confidence that we are on the right track”.