FWIW I was going to start betting on Manifold, but I have no idea how to deal with meditative absorption as an end-state.
Like there are worlds where—for instance—Vit D maybe helps this, or Vit D maybe hurts, and it might depend on you, or it depends on what kind of meditation really works for you. So it takes what is already pretty hard bet for me—just calling whether nicotine is actually likely to help in some way—and makes it harder—is nicotine going to help meditation. Just have no idea.
FWIW I was going to start betting on Manifold, but I have no idea how to deal with meditative absorption as an end-state.
Like there are worlds where—for instance—Vit D maybe helps this, or Vit D maybe hurts, and it might depend on you, or it depends on what kind of meditation really works for you. So it takes what is already pretty hard bet for me—just calling whether nicotine is actually likely to help in some way—and makes it harder—is nicotine going to help meditation. Just have no idea.
Yeah, that makes sense. (I think I saw you bet on one of the markets! (And then maybe sell your stake?))
Thanks for trying anyway. Maybe the non-meditation related markets are easier to predict?
I’d like to encourage best-guess-betting, but I understand that there are better opportunities out there.