Attendees at the top-four AI conferences have been growing at 1.26x/year on average. Data is from Our World in Data. I skipped 2020-2021 for all conferences and 2022 for ICLR, as these conferences were virtual due to the COVID pandemic and had increased virtual attendance.
One could infer from these growth rates that the academic field of AI is growing 1.26x/year. Interestingly, the AI safety field (including technical and governance) seems to be growing at 1.25x/year.
In contrast to the apparent exponential growth in AI conference attendees, the number of AI publications since 2013 has grown quadratically (data from the Standford HAI 2025 AI Index Report). Quadratic growth in publications suggests that a linearly (constantly) increasing number of researchers are producing publications at a linear (constant) rate. Extrapolating a little, this growth rate suggests there will be 3.7M cumulative publications by 2030 (since 2013).
If the AI researcher growth rate is linear, the exponential growth of AI conference attendees might be due to increased industry presence. Also, it’s possible that the attendee growth rate is also quadratic.
Attendees at the top-four AI conferences have been growing at 1.26x/year on average. Data is from Our World in Data. I skipped 2020-2021 for all conferences and 2022 for ICLR, as these conferences were virtual due to the COVID pandemic and had increased virtual attendance.
One could infer from these growth rates that the academic field of AI is growing 1.26x/year. Interestingly, the AI safety field (including technical and governance) seems to be growing at 1.25x/year.
Open question: how fast did the field of cybersecurity grow since the launch of the internet?
In contrast to the apparent exponential growth in AI conference attendees, the number of AI publications since 2013 has grown quadratically (data from the Standford HAI 2025 AI Index Report). Quadratic growth in publications suggests that a linearly (constantly) increasing number of researchers are producing publications at a linear (constant) rate. Extrapolating a little, this growth rate suggests there will be 3.7M cumulative publications by 2030 (since 2013).
If the AI researcher growth rate is linear, the exponential growth of AI conference attendees might be due to increased industry presence. Also, it’s possible that the attendee growth rate is also quadratic.