The assumptions that you’ll move Omega around or otherwise alter Omega’s pattern of behavior seems speculative. Maybe Omega’s going fishing for a few hundred years. Maybe she’s feeling frisky and generous. Maybe I got the problem wrong.
It appears there’s some chance that I’m improving my chance at a million pounds by some amount. Those “somes” may not be high, but my problem-uncertainty makes it an easy call. I see no reason to expect a lower or higher number of Omega appearances based on my decision. To the extent this might be true, it’s dwarfed by the additional chance at a million pounds.
Once I have my million pounds, I’m getting a restraining order against Omega. He’s always trying to screw with me.
Refuse the 10 pounds.
The assumptions that you’ll move Omega around or otherwise alter Omega’s pattern of behavior seems speculative. Maybe Omega’s going fishing for a few hundred years. Maybe she’s feeling frisky and generous. Maybe I got the problem wrong.
It appears there’s some chance that I’m improving my chance at a million pounds by some amount. Those “somes” may not be high, but my problem-uncertainty makes it an easy call. I see no reason to expect a lower or higher number of Omega appearances based on my decision. To the extent this might be true, it’s dwarfed by the additional chance at a million pounds.
Once I have my million pounds, I’m getting a restraining order against Omega. He’s always trying to screw with me.
--JRM