I agree that AI capabilities are spiky and developed in an unusual order. And I agree that because of this, the single-variable representation of intelligence is not very useful for understanding the range of abilities of current frontier models.
At the same time, I expect the jump from “Worse than humans at almost everything” to “Better than humans at almost everything” will be <5 years, which would make the single-variable representation work reasonably well for the purposes of the graph.
I think these “examples of silly mistakes” have not held up well at all. This was often blamed on “training around the limitations”; however, in the case of the linked post, we got a model the next day that performed much better.
And almost every benchmark and measurable set of capabilities has rapidly improved (in some cases beyond human experts).
”We too often give wrong answers to questions ourselves to be justified in being very pleased at such evidence of fallibility on the part of the machines. Further, our superiority can only be felt on such an occasion in relation to the one machine over which we have scored our petty triumph.” Alan Turing, Computing Machinery and Intelligence 1950
I agree that AI capabilities are spiky and developed in an unusual order. And I agree that because of this, the single-variable representation of intelligence is not very useful for understanding the range of abilities of current frontier models.
At the same time, I expect the jump from “Worse than humans at almost everything” to “Better than humans at almost everything” will be <5 years, which would make the single-variable representation work reasonably well for the purposes of the graph.
I think these “examples of silly mistakes” have not held up well at all. This was often blamed on “training around the limitations”; however, in the case of the linked post, we got a model the next day that performed much better.
And almost every benchmark and measurable set of capabilities has rapidly improved (in some cases beyond human experts).
”We too often give wrong answers to questions ourselves to be justified in being very pleased at such evidence of fallibility on the part of the machines. Further, our superiority can only be felt on such an occasion in relation to the one machine over which we have scored our petty triumph.”
Alan Turing, Computing Machinery and Intelligence
1950