Yeah, I think this is actually a problem I see here, though admittedly I often see the hypotheses be vaguely formulated, and I kind of agree with Jotto999 that the verbal forecasts give far too much room for leeway here:
I like Eli Tyre’s comment here:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZEgQGAjQm5rTAnGuM/beware-boasting-about-non-existent-forecasting-track-records#Dv7aTjGXEZh6ALmZn
Yeah, I think this is actually a problem I see here, though admittedly I often see the hypotheses be vaguely formulated, and I kind of agree with Jotto999 that the verbal forecasts give far too much room for leeway here:
I like Eli Tyre’s comment here:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZEgQGAjQm5rTAnGuM/beware-boasting-about-non-existent-forecasting-track-records#Dv7aTjGXEZh6ALmZn