[Unknown wrote:] [...] you should update your opinion [to] a greater probability [...] that the person holds an unreasonable opinion in the matter. But [also to] a greater probability [...] that you are wrong.
In principle, yes. But I see exceptions.
[Unknown wrote:] For example, since Eliezer was surprised to hear of Dennett’s opinion, he should assign a greater probability than before to the possibility that human level AI will not be developed with the foreseeable future. Likewise, to take the more extreme case, assuming that he was surprised at Aumann’s religion, he should assign a greater probability to the Jewish religion, even if only to a slight degree.
Well, admittedly, the Dennett quote depresses me a bit. If I were in Eliezers shoes, I’d probably also choose to defend my stance—you can’t dedicate your life to something with just half a heart!
About Auman’s religion: That’s one of the cases where I refuse to adapt my assigned probability one iota. His belief about religion is the result of his prior alone. So is mine, but it is my considered opinion that my prior is better! =)
Also, if I may digress a bit, I am sceptical about Robin’s Hypothesis that humans in general update to little from other people’s beliefs. My first intuition about this was that the opposite was the case (because of premature convergence and resistance to paradigm shifts). After having second thoughts, I believe the amount is probably just about right. Why? 1) Taking other people’s beliefs as evidence is an evolved trait, and so is probably the approximate amount. 2) Evolution is smarter than I (and Robin, I presume).
In principle, yes. But I see exceptions.
Well, admittedly, the Dennett quote depresses me a bit. If I were in Eliezers shoes, I’d probably also choose to defend my stance—you can’t dedicate your life to something with just half a heart!
About Auman’s religion: That’s one of the cases where I refuse to adapt my assigned probability one iota. His belief about religion is the result of his prior alone. So is mine, but it is my considered opinion that my prior is better! =)
Also, if I may digress a bit, I am sceptical about Robin’s Hypothesis that humans in general update to little from other people’s beliefs. My first intuition about this was that the opposite was the case (because of premature convergence and resistance to paradigm shifts). After having second thoughts, I believe the amount is probably just about right. Why? 1) Taking other people’s beliefs as evidence is an evolved trait, and so is probably the approximate amount. 2) Evolution is smarter than I (and Robin, I presume).