I posted this as a reply [and then posted it in the wrong subthread...reposting final version here] but I thought about it more, and on the Mets/Brewers odds thing, the “win %” from ESPN is something they’ve been doing for years. It’s all over espn.com. It’s not very smart, and doesn’t have to be, because nothing is riding on it.
ESPNbet.com is licensed to use the ESPN name but is otherwise separate. Since their posted odds are their business, I expect them to be a lot more...meticulous, at least. The −160/+125 odds posted imply (after removing the house edge, aka de-vigging) a 58/42 probability split. And that represents only a 4.4% hold from those probabilities, so it’s not outrageous. The standard −110/-110 on even money is a 4.8% hold.
I posted this as a reply [and then posted it in the wrong subthread...reposting final version here] but I thought about it more, and on the Mets/Brewers odds thing, the “win %” from ESPN is something they’ve been doing for years. It’s all over espn.com. It’s not very smart, and doesn’t have to be, because nothing is riding on it.
ESPNbet.com is licensed to use the ESPN name but is otherwise separate. Since their posted odds are their business, I expect them to be a lot more...meticulous, at least. The −160/+125 odds posted imply (after removing the house edge, aka de-vigging) a 58/42 probability split. And that represents only a 4.4% hold from those probabilities, so it’s not outrageous. The standard −110/-110 on even money is a 4.8% hold.