the fact that all the unified cases for AI risk have been written by more ML-safety-sympathetic people like me, Ajeya, and Joe (with the single exception of “AGI ruin”) is indicative that that strategy mostly hasn’t been tried.
I’m not sure what you mean by this, but here’s half-a-dozen “unified cases for AI risk” made by people like Eliezer Yudkowsky, Nick Bostrom, Stuart Armstrong, and myself:
There’s a type signature that I’m trying to get at with the “unified case” description (which I acknowledge I didn’t describe very well in my previous comment), which I’d describe as “trying to make a complete argument (or something close to it)”. I think all the things I was referring to meet this criterion; whereas, of the things you listed, only Superintelligence seems to, with the rest having a type signature more like “trying to convey a handful of core intuitions”. (CFAI may also be in the former category, I haven’t read it, but it was long ago enough that it seems much less relevant to questions related to persuasion today.)
It seems to me that this is a similar complaint as Eliezer’s when he says in List of Lethalities:
“The fact that, twenty-one years into my entering this death game, seven years into other EAs noticing the death game, and two years into even normies starting to notice the death game, it is still Eliezer Yudkowsky writing up this list, says that humanity still has only one gamepiece that can do that.”
except that I’m including a few other pieces of (ML-safety-sympathetic) work in the same category.
I’m not sure what you mean by this, but here’s half-a-dozen “unified cases for AI risk” made by people like Eliezer Yudkowsky, Nick Bostrom, Stuart Armstrong, and myself:
2001 - https://intelligence.org/files/CFAI.pdf
2014 - https://smarterthan.us/
2014 - Superintelligence
2015 - https://intelligence.org/2015/07/24/four-background-claims/
2016 - https://intelligence.org/2016/12/28/ai-alignment-why-its-hard-and-where-to-start/
2017 - https://intelligence.org/2017/04/12/ensuring/
There’s a type signature that I’m trying to get at with the “unified case” description (which I acknowledge I didn’t describe very well in my previous comment), which I’d describe as “trying to make a complete argument (or something close to it)”. I think all the things I was referring to meet this criterion; whereas, of the things you listed, only Superintelligence seems to, with the rest having a type signature more like “trying to convey a handful of core intuitions”. (CFAI may also be in the former category, I haven’t read it, but it was long ago enough that it seems much less relevant to questions related to persuasion today.)
It seems to me that this is a similar complaint as Eliezer’s when he says in List of Lethalities:
except that I’m including a few other pieces of (ML-safety-sympathetic) work in the same category.