Both the ARC-AGI replication and GPT-5′s strong performance on agentic evals* have moved me away from there being a chance of a very rapid rise for a new AI paradigm. I expect my concrete predictions to be less likely to be true. However, I still stand by my original point behind this post: it is not a particular model but a line of research which is of concern, and I still think the research could bear fruit in unexpected and not-priced-in ways.
* - Including cyber!! The X-Bow report has really not been discussed here that much, people just seem to take openai’s word for GPT-5 not being a big step ahead in agentic threat models
Both the ARC-AGI replication and GPT-5′s strong performance on agentic evals* have moved me away from there being a chance of a very rapid rise for a new AI paradigm. I expect my concrete predictions to be less likely to be true. However, I still stand by my original point behind this post: it is not a particular model but a line of research which is of concern, and I still think the research could bear fruit in unexpected and not-priced-in ways.
* - Including cyber!! The X-Bow report has really not been discussed here that much, people just seem to take openai’s word for GPT-5 not being a big step ahead in agentic threat models