When I read the HRM paper and this post I was somewhat alarmed, but not alarmed enough to pay close attention. Did your predictions come true? If so why or why not?
There were more vaguely concerning developments, but certainly nothing like “this is it, we’ve cracked sota using [X] online learning architecture”. Overall, my updates are towards LLMs + long context being sufficient for pretty dangerous capabilities, but with a decent chunk of room left for online learning to do a sudden leap basically out of nowhere (mostly because its so cheap to train one of these models).
Whats your beliefs now?
When I read the HRM paper and this post I was somewhat alarmed, but not alarmed enough to pay close attention. Did your predictions come true? If so why or why not?
Hey, sorry for the late reply. Quick summary:
There were more vaguely concerning developments, but certainly nothing like “this is it, we’ve cracked sota using [X] online learning architecture”. Overall, my updates are towards LLMs + long context being sufficient for pretty dangerous capabilities, but with a decent chunk of room left for online learning to do a sudden leap basically out of nowhere (mostly because its so cheap to train one of these models).