Do you feel confident that you could recognize a Bitcoin-like opportunity if one did appear, distinguishing it from countless other unlikely investments which go bust?
When I have thought that there was a narrow time window during which long-run predictable effects were mispriced, I have been correct 3 out of 3 times (but didn’t follow through at all once, or completely another time, for various logistical reasons). Obviously, I haven’t successfully recognized every such opportunity, but it seems like I’m good enough at recognizing gold when I come across it that when I think I’ve found gold it makes sense to bet on that belief. I tell people to expect that sort of thing roughly once every five years; this is emphatically not a claim that I can look at the market and make a good pick every day.
They’re also not all at the scale of Bitcoin. The smallest of the three was when I correctly predicted the point of maximum pessimism during the Deepwater Horizon spill to within a week, which was worth about a 50% gain as the price returned to normalcy.
When I have thought that there was a narrow time window during which long-run predictable effects were mispriced, I have been correct 3 out of 3 times (but didn’t follow through at all once, or completely another time, for various logistical reasons). Obviously, I haven’t successfully recognized every such opportunity, but it seems like I’m good enough at recognizing gold when I come across it that when I think I’ve found gold it makes sense to bet on that belief. I tell people to expect that sort of thing roughly once every five years; this is emphatically not a claim that I can look at the market and make a good pick every day.
They’re also not all at the scale of Bitcoin. The smallest of the three was when I correctly predicted the point of maximum pessimism during the Deepwater Horizon spill to within a week, which was worth about a 50% gain as the price returned to normalcy.