I think people are frequently mixing in assumptions/claims of how fast we get to ASI if compute and data limits play a role so more dramatic algorithmic improvements are necessary.
And there’s a good reason for doing so. If it takes another ten years, while we’ve got roughly human-level LLM agents, that could be a really good thing for alignment risk (even if it’s pretty bad in other ways and relative to other scenarios).
I think people are frequently mixing in assumptions/claims of how fast we get to ASI if compute and data limits play a role so more dramatic algorithmic improvements are necessary.
And there’s a good reason for doing so. If it takes another ten years, while we’ve got roughly human-level LLM agents, that could be a really good thing for alignment risk (even if it’s pretty bad in other ways and relative to other scenarios).