Haven’t found anything particularly good, but I’ve probably gone as far as I’ll go. I’ve done some analysis trying to predict how much variance we expect from each turtle so that I know how much to overestimate, and for the non-special turtles I’m predicting:
Abigail: 23.0lb
Bertrand: 19.0lb
Chartreuse: 26.2lb
Donatello Dontanien: 21.1lb
Espera: 17.3lb
(Flint is already estimated as a gray turtle as 7.3lb)
Gunther: 30.0lb
(Harold is already estimated as a six-segmented clone as 20.4lb)
Irene: 23.7lb
Jacqueline: 20.0lb
I’m rounding these to 0.1lb even though I’m allowed to go more granular, because if the Tyrant weighs to the same precision we do he will also be rounding to 0.1lb, which means we don’t gain anything from more precision (estimating 7.25lb gives a payoff exactly halfway between estimating 7.3 and 7.2).
I’ll put these estimates in the parent comment for ease of GM extraction.
The one interesting thing I’ve turned up is that Abnormalities appear to convey a very large amount of variance: each abnormality adds ~1lb of average weight, but actually slightly over 1lb of stdev-weight. I suspect that abnormalities are adding weight in a highly-random way: my weight estimates for Espera, Irene and Jacqueline (0-abnormality turtles) are relatively low as a result because my confidence was higher, while my estimate for Gunther (6 abnormalities?) has a lot more safety margin built in.
Haven’t found anything particularly good, but I’ve probably gone as far as I’ll go. I’ve done some analysis trying to predict how much variance we expect from each turtle so that I know how much to overestimate, and for the non-special turtles I’m predicting:
Abigail: 23.0lb
Bertrand: 19.0lb
Chartreuse: 26.2lb
DonatelloDontanien: 21.1lbEspera: 17.3lb
(Flint is already estimated as a gray turtle as 7.3lb)
Gunther: 30.0lb
(Harold is already estimated as a six-segmented clone as 20.4lb)
Irene: 23.7lb
Jacqueline: 20.0lb
I’m rounding these to 0.1lb even though I’m allowed to go more granular, because if the Tyrant weighs to the same precision we do he will also be rounding to 0.1lb, which means we don’t gain anything from more precision (estimating 7.25lb gives a payoff exactly halfway between estimating 7.3 and 7.2).
I’ll put these estimates in the parent comment for ease of GM extraction.
The one interesting thing I’ve turned up is that Abnormalities appear to convey a very large amount of variance: each abnormality adds ~1lb of average weight, but actually slightly over 1lb of stdev-weight. I suspect that abnormalities are adding weight in a highly-random way: my weight estimates for Espera, Irene and Jacqueline (0-abnormality turtles) are relatively low as a result because my confidence was higher, while my estimate for Gunther (6 abnormalities?) has a lot more safety margin built in.