Considering that every new human more or less starts off as a blank slate (or rather, that which we do start with doesn’t improve with each generation) and there is only so much a human can learn within a lifetime (unless we consider genetic engineering or control over death/prolonging life), I’d expect that progress becomes slower and slower over time. I don’t see how a takeoff (where progress speeds up again, and drastically so) could be achieved without either mind uploads, anti-death measures which greatly prolong life, or genetic engineering/breeding of humans. Or major breakthroughs in education, to the point where you don’t need brains to observe and pattern-match, but can teach them directly.
A data point: Even today, in highly explored areas such as mathematics, it takes a significant fraction of a normal human life to acquire the skillset needed to tackle the hard problems.
Ancillary devices (like computers) do improve, however. With time, education will likely shift away from memorising facts, and people will put a greater reliance on handheld computing systems; which can include, for example, automated theorem proving software (which already exists).
Brain-computer direct interfaces will take time to develop, but are a continuation of this trend.
Considering that every new human more or less starts off as a blank slate (or rather, that which we do start with doesn’t improve with each generation) and there is only so much a human can learn within a lifetime (unless we consider genetic engineering or control over death/prolonging life), I’d expect that progress becomes slower and slower over time. I don’t see how a takeoff (where progress speeds up again, and drastically so) could be achieved without either mind uploads, anti-death measures which greatly prolong life, or genetic engineering/breeding of humans. Or major breakthroughs in education, to the point where you don’t need brains to observe and pattern-match, but can teach them directly.
A data point: Even today, in highly explored areas such as mathematics, it takes a significant fraction of a normal human life to acquire the skillset needed to tackle the hard problems.
Ancillary devices (like computers) do improve, however. With time, education will likely shift away from memorising facts, and people will put a greater reliance on handheld computing systems; which can include, for example, automated theorem proving software (which already exists).
Brain-computer direct interfaces will take time to develop, but are a continuation of this trend.