Machines are doubling in raw computational speed, but have yet to show signs of intelligence. In fact, it’s pretty obvious by now that intelligence is not merely a function of raw computational speed; there’s some other, as yet unknown, factor which is necessary. Once this factor is identified and can be artificially created, then yes, machines will quickly outpace humanity… but what is known about this factor is that it is very, very hard to identify.
Though it seems unlikely that AI will fail to be invented over the next century, it has nonetheless non-negligible probability.
On the other hand, when I was in middle school, I was taught that the human brain was hundreds of thousands of times more powerful than any supercomputer. These days, our top supercomputers have a whole lot more processing power than the human brain. So it’s more or less true that human brains have already lost, even if we haven’t yet reached the point where everyone can own a computer more powerful than a human brain.
And so it will be beaten by machines, which are doubling in power every year or so. Brains have lost, long live computers.
Machines are doubling in raw computational speed, but have yet to show signs of intelligence. In fact, it’s pretty obvious by now that intelligence is not merely a function of raw computational speed; there’s some other, as yet unknown, factor which is necessary. Once this factor is identified and can be artificially created, then yes, machines will quickly outpace humanity… but what is known about this factor is that it is very, very hard to identify.
Though it seems unlikely that AI will fail to be invented over the next century, it has nonetheless non-negligible probability.
By one measure, the computers have won. My name is difficult for many human beings to process. This not nearly as serious a problem as having a name which computers find difficult to process.
And of course, one can also run into problems with words that computers could process, but refuse to.
Moore’s Law is a socio-economic observation, not a physical law like the Second Law of Thermodynamics.
On the other hand, when I was in middle school, I was taught that the human brain was hundreds of thousands of times more powerful than any supercomputer. These days, our top supercomputers have a whole lot more processing power than the human brain. So it’s more or less true that human brains have already lost, even if we haven’t yet reached the point where everyone can own a computer more powerful than a human brain.