What can be done for $6 million, can be done even better with 6 million GPUs[1]. What can be done with 6 million GPUs, can’t be done for $6 million. Giant training systems are the moat.
Not sure if it’s correct, I didn’t actually short NVDA so all I can do is collect my bayes points. I did expect most investors to think at a first-level thinking as that was my immediate reaction on reading about DeepSeek’s training cost. If models can be duplicated a few weeks / months after they’re out for cheaper, then you don’t have a moat (this is for most regular technologies. I’m not saying AI isn’t different, just that most investors think of this like any other tech innovation)
What can be done for $6 million, can be done even better with 6 million GPUs[1]. What can be done with 6 million GPUs, can’t be done for $6 million. Giant training systems are the moat.
H/t Gwern.
Yeah, in one sense that makes sense. But also, NVDA is down ~16% today.
And is that correct? Do you expect that to last? My 2021 NVDA purchases still feeling pretty wise right now. :P
Not sure if it’s correct, I didn’t actually short NVDA so all I can do is collect my bayes points. I did expect most investors to think at a first-level thinking as that was my immediate reaction on reading about DeepSeek’s training cost. If models can be duplicated a few weeks / months after they’re out for cheaper, then you don’t have a moat (this is for most regular technologies. I’m not saying AI isn’t different, just that most investors think of this like any other tech innovation)
I am so out of touch with mindset of typical investors that I was taken completely by surprise to see NVDA drop. Thanks for the insight.