If the attacker, whenever he pulls a red ball out of the urn, puts it back and keeps pulling until he gets a blue ball, the Bayesian “rational mind” will conclude that the urn is entirely full of blue balls.
Surely the actual Bayesian rational mind’s conclusion is that the attacker will (probably) always show a blue ball, nothing to do with the urn at all.
Surely the actual Bayesian rational mind’s conclusion is that the attacker will (probably) always show a blue ball, nothing to do with the urn at all.
Solomonoff prior gives nonzero probability to the attacker deceiving us. But humans are not very good at operating with such probabilities precisely.