I don’t know of anyone who’s luckier than average in a strict test (rolling a die), but there is such a thing as the vague ability to have things go well for you no matter what, even when there’s no obvious skill or merit driving it. People call that being a “golden boy” or “living a charmed life.” I think that this is really a matter of some subtle, unnamed skill or instinct for leaning towards good outcomes and away from bad ones, something so hard to pinpoint that it doesn’t even look like a skill. I suspect it’s a personal quality, not just a result of arbitrary circumstances; but sometimes people are “lucky” in a way that seems unexplainable by personal characteristics alone.
I am one of those lucky people, to an eerie degree. I once believed in Divine Providence because it seemed so obvious in my own, preternaturally golden, life. (One example of many: I am unusually healthy, immune to injury, and pain-free, to a degree that has astonished people I know. I have recovered fully from a 104-degree fever in four hours. I had my first headache at the age of 22.) If an AI told me there was a systematic explanation for my luck I would believe it. I also have an acquaintance who’s lucky in a different way: he has an uncanny record of surviving near death experiences.
I’d be willing to consider that at least one (more likely several) of these subtle skills might exist; we’ve got some similar things well documented already, like “charisma”, and searching for more seems at least like a reasonable pursuit. But that ought to be tempered by some statistical skepticism; as the saying goes, million-to-one chances happen eight times a day in New York.
That’s kind of what I was getting at. One skill or habit might be the tendency to stop before you hit the edge of the ravine. People who look like they’re blase about taking risks and are just “lucky,” but in fact are just good at finding opportunities and adapting to circumstances and not going quite all the way into dangerous situations. A sort of micro-level good judgment, which often compensates for macro-level bad judgment. (Think of someone who looks like he never studies and is just “lucky,” but actually has a good sense, maybe subconscious, of what is worth working on and what isn’t.)
Ha! I totally see where you are coming from. I have believed in fate for reasons very similar to this. It was just too eerie how life seemed to provide me exactly with what was best for me at optimal times. Kinda like I’m a player character in this simulation.
I’m currently mostly agnostic about it and accept confirmation bias / being Wrong Genre Savvy as most likely explanations, but if the AI told me I really was lucky or the universe (partially) built around me, I’d shout, “I knew it!”.
One might argue that failing to have 104-degree fevers or near-death experiences in the first place reflects an even greater degree of luck, even though they don’t feel nearly as eerie.
right; but there’s also all the things that never happened to me but happened to most people.
This isn’t too serious an observation—it’s edging towards the world of magical thinking—but I have literally never met anyone I’d judge as luckier than myself.
Still, given the negligible prior for “luck”, isn’t it far, far more reasonable to just figure that there are “lottery-winners” like yourself, and you’re just a member of the good extreme end of the bell curve, and there’s nothing unusual or psychogenic about it?
The answer to my question is yes.
See also: tropisms, which would be a necessary condition for being on one end of the bell curve, but would still be weak evidence for actually predicting that someone with a high degree of positive tropisms would end up bizarrely fortunate.
I sort of believe the “luck” thing already.
I don’t know of anyone who’s luckier than average in a strict test (rolling a die), but there is such a thing as the vague ability to have things go well for you no matter what, even when there’s no obvious skill or merit driving it. People call that being a “golden boy” or “living a charmed life.” I think that this is really a matter of some subtle, unnamed skill or instinct for leaning towards good outcomes and away from bad ones, something so hard to pinpoint that it doesn’t even look like a skill. I suspect it’s a personal quality, not just a result of arbitrary circumstances; but sometimes people are “lucky” in a way that seems unexplainable by personal characteristics alone.
I am one of those lucky people, to an eerie degree. I once believed in Divine Providence because it seemed so obvious in my own, preternaturally golden, life. (One example of many: I am unusually healthy, immune to injury, and pain-free, to a degree that has astonished people I know. I have recovered fully from a 104-degree fever in four hours. I had my first headache at the age of 22.) If an AI told me there was a systematic explanation for my luck I would believe it. I also have an acquaintance who’s lucky in a different way: he has an uncanny record of surviving near death experiences.
I’d be willing to consider that at least one (more likely several) of these subtle skills might exist; we’ve got some similar things well documented already, like “charisma”, and searching for more seems at least like a reasonable pursuit. But that ought to be tempered by some statistical skepticism; as the saying goes, million-to-one chances happen eight times a day in New York.
That’s kind of what I was getting at. One skill or habit might be the tendency to stop before you hit the edge of the ravine. People who look like they’re blase about taking risks and are just “lucky,” but in fact are just good at finding opportunities and adapting to circumstances and not going quite all the way into dangerous situations. A sort of micro-level good judgment, which often compensates for macro-level bad judgment. (Think of someone who looks like he never studies and is just “lucky,” but actually has a good sense, maybe subconscious, of what is worth working on and what isn’t.)
Ha! I totally see where you are coming from. I have believed in fate for reasons very similar to this. It was just too eerie how life seemed to provide me exactly with what was best for me at optimal times. Kinda like I’m a player character in this simulation.
I’m currently mostly agnostic about it and accept confirmation bias / being Wrong Genre Savvy as most likely explanations, but if the AI told me I really was lucky or the universe (partially) built around me, I’d shout, “I knew it!”.
One might argue that failing to have 104-degree fevers or near-death experiences in the first place reflects an even greater degree of luck, even though they don’t feel nearly as eerie.
right; but there’s also all the things that never happened to me but happened to most people.
This isn’t too serious an observation—it’s edging towards the world of magical thinking—but I have literally never met anyone I’d judge as luckier than myself.
Ever broken a bone?
nope. Also no bee stings.
Aha! So you’re the one who keeps sabatoging train engines) to find someone with unbreakable bones!
I thought it was obvious that Sarah is an ancestor of Teela Brown.
Still, given the negligible prior for “luck”, isn’t it far, far more reasonable to just figure that there are “lottery-winners” like yourself, and you’re just a member of the good extreme end of the bell curve, and there’s nothing unusual or psychogenic about it?
The answer to my question is yes.
See also: tropisms, which would be a necessary condition for being on one end of the bell curve, but would still be weak evidence for actually predicting that someone with a high degree of positive tropisms would end up bizarrely fortunate.