Just to be clear, you should estimate the likelihood of your top 2 explanations (eg 70% and 10%) and then pick the behavior that leads to the best weighted outcome (eg cross the street to avoid the un-leashed mangy dog even though it’s probably friendly since the cost of being wrong is disproportionately high, but don’t call animal control since it’s probably someone’s pet and they will be along shortly)
Just to be clear, you should estimate the likelihood of your top 2 explanations (eg 70% and 10%) and then pick the behavior that leads to the best weighted outcome (eg cross the street to avoid the un-leashed mangy dog even though it’s probably friendly since the cost of being wrong is disproportionately high, but don’t call animal control since it’s probably someone’s pet and they will be along shortly)