It periodically does happen that governments default on their pensions, either completely or partly. Consider Argentina, or Greece. Assorted California cities are currently in bankruptcy court asking a judge to let them reduce their pension obligations.
Even beyond government default, private-sector Investments routinely go bust. If your pension was run by a bank that turned out to be or to become crooked, your long-term compound interest may never happen.
There again, there is tail risk. You may not be made whole if the pension custodian is bankrupted by fraud, seized by the government, or otherwise subject to accident.
There’s an easy empirical way to assess this. Ask how common are violent political revolutions and what happens to financial products sold before the revolution. Did the All-Russia Insurance Company continue to pay out on policies after the 1917 Revolution? The headquarters building was seized by the Cheka and I believe the owners and executives were exiled or liquidated. What happened if you had your pension investments in Iran in 1979?
Yes, there are rich, developed, stable countries where revolution is rare. How long will they stay that way? A century? Two centuries? In the presence of Singularity-scale disruption? These stories about multiplying wealth by factors of thousands or more seem to be making a very heavy bet on permanent stability of the sort never previously seen on Earth.
It periodically does happen that governments default on their pensions, either completely or partly. Consider Argentina, or Greece. Assorted California cities are currently in bankruptcy court asking a judge to let them reduce their pension obligations.
Even beyond government default, private-sector Investments routinely go bust. If your pension was run by a bank that turned out to be or to become crooked, your long-term compound interest may never happen.
I’m not talking about government run pensions, but about private retirement accounts or other investments owned by retirees.
There again, there is tail risk. You may not be made whole if the pension custodian is bankrupted by fraud, seized by the government, or otherwise subject to accident.
There’s an easy empirical way to assess this. Ask how common are violent political revolutions and what happens to financial products sold before the revolution. Did the All-Russia Insurance Company continue to pay out on policies after the 1917 Revolution? The headquarters building was seized by the Cheka and I believe the owners and executives were exiled or liquidated. What happened if you had your pension investments in Iran in 1979?
Yes, there are rich, developed, stable countries where revolution is rare. How long will they stay that way? A century? Two centuries? In the presence of Singularity-scale disruption? These stories about multiplying wealth by factors of thousands or more seem to be making a very heavy bet on permanent stability of the sort never previously seen on Earth.