Example: you can think AGI alignment is worth working hard on even if (a) you only assign a 30% probability to success, and (b) you’re not incredibly excited and overjoyed to be working on it.
By assumption, this also isn’t a case where you find the work so inherently bleh that it’s actually not a good fit for you and you shouldn’t try. If you’d be sufficiently excited in the world where you thought the success odds were 70%, and your system 2 doesn’t think the difference between 70% and 30% odds is decision-relevant in this case, then it seems like something’s going wrong if you’re insufficiently motivated in the 30% case.
Example: you can think AGI alignment is worth working hard on even if (a) you only assign a 30% probability to success, and (b) you’re not incredibly excited and overjoyed to be working on it.
By assumption, this also isn’t a case where you find the work so inherently bleh that it’s actually not a good fit for you and you shouldn’t try. If you’d be sufficiently excited in the world where you thought the success odds were 70%, and your system 2 doesn’t think the difference between 70% and 30% odds is decision-relevant in this case, then it seems like something’s going wrong if you’re insufficiently motivated in the 30% case.
You seem to be conflating “madly driven” with “incredibly excited and overjoyed”, and also “expect to succeed” with “excited”?