I don’t necessarily believe or disbelieve in the final 1% taking the longest in this case – there are too many variables to make a confident prediction. However, it does tend to be a common occurrence.
It could very well be that the 1% before the final 1% takes the longest. Based on the past few years, progress in the AI space has been made fairly steadily, so it could also be that it continues at just this pace until that last 1% is hit, and then exponential takeoff occurs.
You could also have a takeoff event that carries from now till 99%, which is then followed by the final 1% taking a long period.
A typical exponential takeoff is, of course, very possible as well.
I don’t think many people on lw believe that the last 1% will take the longest time—I believe many would say that the take off is exponential
I don’t necessarily believe or disbelieve in the final 1% taking the longest in this case – there are too many variables to make a confident prediction. However, it does tend to be a common occurrence.
It could very well be that the 1% before the final 1% takes the longest. Based on the past few years, progress in the AI space has been made fairly steadily, so it could also be that it continues at just this pace until that last 1% is hit, and then exponential takeoff occurs.
You could also have a takeoff event that carries from now till 99%, which is then followed by the final 1% taking a long period.
A typical exponential takeoff is, of course, very possible as well.