Please also consider the consequences of timelines WRT preparing for the arrival of AGI/ASI. From this perspective, accurate predictions of the technology and its consequences are very useful. For raw timelines, rring on the side of shorter seems much more useful in that if people think timelines are shorter they will for the most part be more prepared when it actually happens.
Erring on the side of longer timelines has the potential to be disastrous. People seem to tend toward complacency anyway. Thinking they’ve got a long time to prepare seems to make it much likelier that we’ll be collectively unprepared, and thus quite possibly all die.
This isn’t an argument to distort your timelines, just to make sure you’re not overestimating, and to emphasize the real possibility of short timelines given the large uncertainty.
Please also consider the consequences of timelines WRT preparing for the arrival of AGI/ASI. From this perspective, accurate predictions of the technology and its consequences are very useful. For raw timelines, rring on the side of shorter seems much more useful in that if people think timelines are shorter they will for the most part be more prepared when it actually happens.
Erring on the side of longer timelines has the potential to be disastrous. People seem to tend toward complacency anyway. Thinking they’ve got a long time to prepare seems to make it much likelier that we’ll be collectively unprepared, and thus quite possibly all die.
This isn’t an argument to distort your timelines, just to make sure you’re not overestimating, and to emphasize the real possibility of short timelines given the large uncertainty.