This seems like hyperbolic exhortation rather than simple description.
It is exhortation, certainly. It does not seem hyperbolic to me. It is making the same point that is illustrated by the multi-armed bandit problem: once you have determined which lever gives the maximum expected payout, the optimum strategy is to always pull that lever, and not to pull levers in proportion to how much they pay. Dithering never helps.
the ability to change one’s plan when circumstances or knowledge changes is sometimes quite valuable.
Yes. But only as such changes come to be. Certainly not immediately on making the decision. “Commitment” is not quite the concept I’m getting at here. It’s just that if I decided yesterday to do something today, then if nothing has changed I do that thing today. I don’t redo the calculation, because I already know how it came out.
It is exhortation, certainly. It does not seem hyperbolic to me. It is making the same point that is illustrated by the multi-armed bandit problem: once you have determined which lever gives the maximum expected payout, the optimum strategy is to always pull that lever, and not to pull levers in proportion to how much they pay. Dithering never helps.
Yes. But only as such changes come to be. Certainly not immediately on making the decision. “Commitment” is not quite the concept I’m getting at here. It’s just that if I decided yesterday to do something today, then if nothing has changed I do that thing today. I don’t redo the calculation, because I already know how it came out.