my unconditional median TAI timeline is now something like 2047, with a mode around 2035, defined by the first year we get >30% yearly GWP growth as measured from a prior peak, or an event of comparable significance.
Given it’s about to be 2023, this means your mode is 12 years away and your median is 24 years away. I’d expect your mode to be nearer than your median, but probably not that much nearer.
I haven’t forecasted when we might get >30% yearly GWP growth or an event of comparable significance (e.g. x-risk) specifically, but naively I’d guess that (for example) 2040 is more likely than 2035 to be the first year in which there is >30% annual GWP growth (or x-risk).
These numbers were based on the TAI timelines model I built, which produced a highly skewed distribution. I also added several years to the timeline due to anticipated delays and unrelated catastrophes, and some chance that the model is totally wrong. My inside view prediction given no delays is more like a median of 2037 with a mode of 2029.
I agree it appears the mode is much too near, but I encourage you to build a model yourself. I think you might be surprised at how much sooner the mode can be compared to the median.
Given it’s about to be 2023, this means your mode is 12 years away and your median is 24 years away. I’d expect your mode to be nearer than your median, but probably not that much nearer.
I haven’t forecasted when we might get >30% yearly GWP growth or an event of comparable significance (e.g. x-risk) specifically, but naively I’d guess that (for example) 2040 is more likely than 2035 to be the first year in which there is >30% annual GWP growth (or x-risk).
These numbers were based on the TAI timelines model I built, which produced a highly skewed distribution. I also added several years to the timeline due to anticipated delays and unrelated catastrophes, and some chance that the model is totally wrong. My inside view prediction given no delays is more like a median of 2037 with a mode of 2029.
I agree it appears the mode is much too near, but I encourage you to build a model yourself. I think you might be surprised at how much sooner the mode can be compared to the median.