I’m not sure. It depends greatly on the rate of general algorithmic progress, which I think is unknown at this time. I think it is not implausible (>10% chance) that we will see draconian controls that limit GPU production and usage, decreasing effective compute available to the largest actors by more than 99% from the trajectory under laissez faire. Such controls would be unprecedented in human history, but justified on the merits, if AI is both transformative and highly dangerous.
It should be noted that, to the extent that more hardware allows for more algorithmic experimentation, such controls would also slow down algorithmic progress.
What level of taxation do you think would delay timelines by even one year?
I’m not sure. It depends greatly on the rate of general algorithmic progress, which I think is unknown at this time. I think it is not implausible (>10% chance) that we will see draconian controls that limit GPU production and usage, decreasing effective compute available to the largest actors by more than 99% from the trajectory under laissez faire. Such controls would be unprecedented in human history, but justified on the merits, if AI is both transformative and highly dangerous.
It should be noted that, to the extent that more hardware allows for more algorithmic experimentation, such controls would also slow down algorithmic progress.