The two questions you pose are not equivalent. There are critiques of AI existential risk arguments. Some of them are fairly strong. I am unaware of any which do a good job of quantifying the odds of AI existential risk. In addition, your second question appears to be asking for a cumulative probability. It’s hard to see how you can provide that absent a mechanism for eventually cutting AI existential risk to zero...which seems difficult.
The two questions you pose are not equivalent. There are critiques of AI existential risk arguments. Some of them are fairly strong. I am unaware of any which do a good job of quantifying the odds of AI existential risk. In addition, your second question appears to be asking for a cumulative probability. It’s hard to see how you can provide that absent a mechanism for eventually cutting AI existential risk to zero...which seems difficult.