I think I have almost the exact opposite intuition. It seems to me that most of the coin flips barely matter at all and some small number of them matter hugely, so the game isn’t about getting a ton of heads in a row so much as it is about clearly identifying which heads it really matters to get and then really getting them (and then there’s something to say about giving yourself more opportunities to flip important coins but maybe we’re stretching the metaphor past its intended domain of application at this point).
Otherwise it seems difficult to explain how people who aren’t strong rationalists (i.e. almost everyone including most of us) can lead okay lives and some of them can even be wildly successful.
I think I have almost the exact opposite intuition. It seems to me that most of the coin flips barely matter at all and some small number of them matter hugely, so the game isn’t about getting a ton of heads in a row so much as it is about clearly identifying which heads it really matters to get and then really getting them (and then there’s something to say about giving yourself more opportunities to flip important coins but maybe we’re stretching the metaphor past its intended domain of application at this point).
Otherwise it seems difficult to explain how people who aren’t strong rationalists (i.e. almost everyone including most of us) can lead okay lives and some of them can even be wildly successful.