These numbers come from if each party were actually in a mixture of experts, or equivalently Kelly-betting their epistemic credit points on a prediction market. We might update less due to some combination of
other evidence we have about Paul and Eliezer is not independent with this
The bet is between Paul thinking for a few hours, and Eliezer thinking for a few hours. But what we really want to decide between is Paul’s model being right vs Eliezer’s model being right, and the bet is not perfect evidence of that.
These numbers come from if each party were actually in a mixture of experts, or equivalently Kelly-betting their epistemic credit points on a prediction market. We might update less due to some combination of
other evidence we have about Paul and Eliezer is not independent with this
The bet is between Paul thinking for a few hours, and Eliezer thinking for a few hours. But what we really want to decide between is Paul’s model being right vs Eliezer’s model being right, and the bet is not perfect evidence of that.