If you made ten million predictions of things that happen once every ten thousand years, and about three times a day one of them happens, then it would be sensible to conclude that a given one happens about once every ten thousand years. Most people don’t do this, however. If someone managed to make ten million such predictions, they’d likely end up with a lot more than three of them happening a day.
If you made ten million predictions of things that happen once every ten thousand years, and about three times a day one of them happens, then it would be sensible to conclude that a given one happens about once every ten thousand years. Most people don’t do this, however. If someone managed to make ten million such predictions, they’d likely end up with a lot more than three of them happening a day.