Oh, yes that’s even better. I had assumed I was supposed to phrase it as a discrete question. (also interested in fractional people if it’s less than one)
I guess ‘number of microcovids generated by the event’ is what I actually want. Not sure what the requirements of the question are.
Either expected number of people who get covid or number of microcovids generated by the event works as a question! My instinctive sense is that # of people who get covid will be easier to quickly reason about, but I’ll see as I’m forecasting it.
Nod. My guess is that that number of people in expectation will likely be 0 (if it turns out to be 1 or more than that’s a dealbreaker for the event), and “fractional chance at least one person gets it” would be decision relevant for me.
*I guess further consideration that’s harder to reason about is “I’m expecting most of the attendees to be the sort of person who takes caution seriously most of the time, which lowers the rate of people who are likely to have in the first place to transmit it.” But, not sure how to quantify that and don’t really want to rely on it.
Here’s my prediction, and here’s a spreadsheet with more details (I predicted expected # of people who would get COVID). Some caveats/assumptions:
There’s a lot of uncertainty in each of the variables that I didn’t have time to research in-depth
I didn’t adjust for this being outdoors, you can add a row and adjust for that if you have a good sense of how it would affect it.
I wasn’t sure how to account for the time being 3 hours. My sense is that if you’re singing loudly at people < 1m for 3 hours, this is going to be a pretty high infection rate. Also, I assumed they weren’t wearing masks because of the singing. I’m most uncertain about this though
You didn’t mention how big the pods are. I assumed 10 people in a pod, but it would change it if this were much smaller.
(fwiw: I was assuming the people in pods would already have infected each other or would be about to infect each other anyways (due to sharing a house and lots of airspace), so the intent was something more about how much additional spread would be between pods, outdoors)
Oh yeah that makes sense, I was slightly confused about the pod setup. The approach would’ve been different in that case (still would’ve estimated how many people in each pod were currently infected, but would’ve spent more time on the transmission rate for 30 feet outdoors). Curious what your current prediction for this is? (here is a blank distribution for the question if you want to use that)
I haven’t yet attempted to seriously estimate it. I know of two other people who have risk calculators that I’m going to try to use at some point, and was interested in having a few different estimates to help triangulate things.
I think the intention is that the forecasts are of continuous variables. Are you interested in the expected number of people who get covid?
Oh, yes that’s even better. I had assumed I was supposed to phrase it as a discrete question.
(also interested in fractional people if it’s less than one)
I guess ‘number of microcovids generated by the event’ is what I actually want. Not sure what the requirements of the question are.
Either expected number of people who get covid or number of microcovids generated by the event works as a question! My instinctive sense is that # of people who get covid will be easier to quickly reason about, but I’ll see as I’m forecasting it.
Nod. My guess is that that number of people in expectation will likely be 0 (if it turns out to be 1 or more than that’s a dealbreaker for the event), and “fractional chance at least one person gets it” would be decision relevant for me.
*I guess further consideration that’s harder to reason about is “I’m expecting most of the attendees to be the sort of person who takes caution seriously most of the time, which lowers the rate of people who are likely to have in the first place to transmit it.” But, not sure how to quantify that and don’t really want to rely on it.
Here’s my prediction, and here’s a spreadsheet with more details (I predicted expected # of people who would get COVID). Some caveats/assumptions:
There’s a lot of uncertainty in each of the variables that I didn’t have time to research in-depth
I didn’t adjust for this being outdoors, you can add a row and adjust for that if you have a good sense of how it would affect it.
I wasn’t sure how to account for the time being 3 hours. My sense is that if you’re singing loudly at people < 1m for 3 hours, this is going to be a pretty high infection rate. Also, I assumed they weren’t wearing masks because of the singing. I’m most uncertain about this though
You didn’t mention how big the pods are. I assumed 10 people in a pod, but it would change it if this were much smaller.
Thanks!
(fwiw: I was assuming the people in pods would already have infected each other or would be about to infect each other anyways (due to sharing a house and lots of airspace), so the intent was something more about how much additional spread would be between pods, outdoors)
Oh yeah that makes sense, I was slightly confused about the pod setup. The approach would’ve been different in that case (still would’ve estimated how many people in each pod were currently infected, but would’ve spent more time on the transmission rate for 30 feet outdoors). Curious what your current prediction for this is? (here is a blank distribution for the question if you want to use that)
I haven’t yet attempted to seriously estimate it. I know of two other people who have risk calculators that I’m going to try to use at some point, and was interested in having a few different estimates to help triangulate things.